Earth System Evolution Accomplishments

Although publication quantity is an imperfect measure of research success, it is worth noting that in the four years prior to the program’s 2008 external review, members had published in excess of 430 scientific papers. Many program members attribute their influential work to the collaborative and trusting tenor of CIFAR meetings, where members can present partially-developed ideas to be discussed, criticized and developed through group interactions.

• CIFAR researchers recently showed that the sea-level rise due to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would not distribute evenly as was previously estimated. North American coastlines and a southern region of the Indian Ocean would see sea levels rise by up to seven metres, inundating many heavily populated coastal regions and cities. The southern portion of South America, though, would experience very little change in sea level. This prediction is explained by the huge gravitational pull of the ice sheet itself. Were the ice to melt, this pull would disappear, causing sea levels in the Antarctic region to drop while water flowed back into the northern hemisphere. The researchers also found that the melting would cause the Earth’s rotational axis to tilt by about 500 metres, which would further shift water from the southern to the northern hemisphere.
• Program members have observed connections between greenhouse gases and climate far back into the geological record. This is a seminal contribution to understanding the period of abrupt global warming and a significant rise in levels of carbon dioxide in the Earth's deep past. They hypothesize about a number of factors that likely contributed to the rise in carbon dioxide, such as solar variability, warmer oceans, and different geography of the continental plates. Program members now aim to generate a complete reconstruction of the environmental conditions at the time.